VRS expert predicts three NA teams will make Budapest Major, but not Wildcard

150,000 simulations from a self-described CS2 "stats and data guy" and league admin suggest that the most likely scenario is that only three NA reams qualify for the StarLadder Budapest Major.

Finn "Mischief" Farrer, an admin for EPICLAN and the UK/Ireland Circuit league, posted his simulation results for Americas earlier today. In recent weeks he's posted predictions for the EU teams, using tens of millions of simulated match results.

In his Americas predictions, three NA teams have a greater than 50 percent chance of qualifying: Passion UA (consisting of the former Complexity core) have the strongest odds at 99.40%, M80 are second amongst NA teams at 88.71%, and NRG sit just above the Major cutoff at 65.89%. Mischief also notes in his predictions that there is a 37% chance that less than three NA teams in total qualify.

According to him, NA teams are "somewhat suffering in this VRS system due to the imbalance in points on offer." This is reflected in the low percentages seen in the other NA teams; Wildcard has the fourth highest odds of an NA team at just 14.74%, and the likes of BLUEJAYS, Marsborne, Getting Info, and Chicken Coop each have less than a 4% chance at qualifying.

Additionally, Wildcard are in quite dire straits after making a number of roster changes post-Major, with the Houston-based organization having less than a 15% chance of making the Major.

Passion UA's skyhigh odds make sense, given that they are the only NA representatives at bigger international LANs like DraculaN and StarLadder StarSeries Fall, while M80 and NRG both compete in ESL Pro League in late September.

For the remaining NA teams, they'll have to perform well at tournaments like Fragdelphia Fragville and Blocktober if they have any hope of reaching the Budapest Major.