VRS expert's latest models predict Liquid will miss Cologne Major, NRG at 99% chance of qualifying

The latest models from VRS expert and modeler extraordinaire Finn "Mischief" Farrer released today suggest that NRG are near-guaranteed to qualify for the IEM Cologne 2026 Major while Passion UA and M80 both have a >70% of securing a spot at the Major.

NRG boast an impressive 99% chance of qualifying per Mischief's model, with a worst case scenario for the team seeing them qualify via the eighth spot for the region. Meanwhile, Passion UA and M80 could theoretically still miss out on the Major, however the odds favor both teams, especially Passion UA if they perform well at the upcoming Roman Imperium Cup VI.

Unfortunately NA's remaining teams are in dire straits, with Marsborne only have an 11.2% chance of making the Cologne Major while every other team has a <7.2% of finding a spot. With that in mind, Cologne is shaping up to be the second Major in a row with only three NA teams in attendance.

Looking towards Mischief's model for Europe, Russel "Twistzz" Van Dulken and FaZe are favorites to make the Major despite poor form in 2026, with the team having an 84.8% chance of qualifying.

As for Liquid, they are currently expected to miss the Major after a dismal start to the year, with the team only having a 27.4% of booking a ticket to Cologne. This would be the second time in recent memory Liquid have missed a Major, with the team also missing the PGL Major Copenhagen 2024 after going 2-2 in the RMR.